Tuesday, October 2, 2007

MVP Nonsense

One can only hope that the rest of the National League playoffs are just as exciting as Monday night's tiebreaker between San Diego and Colorado. It was refreshing to watch two competent ball clubs battle each other to the very end and beyond. Both teams were able to limit early damage and make comebacks early on. Later in the game, the bullpens were steady, holding the game at a tie until extra innings. Amazingly, the Rockies were able to answer Scott Hairston's two run homer in the top of the 13th with 3 runs off of closer Trevor Hoffman. The last view days have been a nightmare for San Diego fans. Not only did their Padres blow saves in 2 of the last 3 games to lose the wild card, but the Chargers are in a 1-3 hole to start the football season.

A lot of people want Jimmy Rollins to be the NL MVP, but his stats are amazingly similar to Carlos Beltran's. Rollins has a lot more steals, but besides that, both guys have done the same at the plate, and no one's mentioning Beltran for MVP.

Rollins might not even be the NL's best shortstop. Just look at what Hanley Ramirez has done out of the lead-off spot this year. Although Rollins is much better defensively, it's hard to argue that he's a better hitter than Hanley. So who should be the NL MVP? There are a bunch of guys who could get it. No one really stands out for me. This one's up to the voters.

As promised, here's the run differential numbers for the 4 AL playoff teams:

Red Sox: 867-657 = 210
Yankees: 968-777 = 191
Indians: 811-704 = 107
Angels: 822-731 = 91

The Sox and Yanks are clearly the dominant teams here, but just like Dane Cook says, you can't script October. Anything can happen, but don't be surprised if everyone's two least favorite teams play in the ALCS again.

If you're still wondering about the NL MVP, I decided to look into more obscure stats. Here's the NL candidates ranked according to how many runs would be scored per 27 outs (ie: one game) by a lineup made up of 9 clones of the mentioned players. For example, a lineup made up of 9 Chippers Jones clones would score nearly 9 runs per game (unless the game was played in Shea Stadium, in which case the 1st inning would never cease). Does this make Chipper Jones the MVP? Hey, why the heck not? He's the only one of the candidates who walked more than he struck out anyway.

Oh, by the way, according to the same measure, David Ortiz is worth more runs than A-rod! However, I still think you have to give A-rod the nod just because of the ridiculous quantity of powerful hits that he had. It's crazy to think that he actually hit 19 more home runs than Big Papi.

Quick playoff predictions: I'll take Philly over Colorado because both teams can hit, but Cole Hamels is the only real stopper in the series. However, if Philly's bullpen resorts to it's old ways, it could get ugly. This might be the 1st round's most exciting match up.

Chicago over Arizona, because I still don't know how Arizona won so many games. Soriano, Ramirez, and Lee are downright frightening, and Chicago's staff isn't so bad either.

Boston should defeat Anaheim. I have nothing against the Angels, but Boston just seems a little bit deeper in the lineup and on the mound.

That's it for today. Yankees v. Tribe prediction coming tomorrow as well as some other stuff.

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